Lib Dem supporters have no other alternative
By October 2005 it was clear that watershed in British politics had arrived. The Liberal Democrats, for all their talk of “Real Alternative” and support gained due to the war showed their ineffectuality at their September conference. Labour quickly followed this up with a bullish Conference overshadowed by the harsh treatment of an 84 year old man who shouted “balderdash”.
The Conservative conference was the centre of greatest media coverage, hoping to see the emergence of a new leader of the Party. The materialization of David Cameron and a two month process of his election as Party leader has greatly improved the image of our Party.
But what of the “Real alternative”? Subsequently their leaders in both the House of Commons and House of Lords have resigned through alcohol problems. Two runners in their leadership election have been “outed” and are therefore seen as dishonest, one of them resigning and pulling out of the leadership election.
But most of all the emergence of a seemingly reformed Conservative Party at the top of the polls asks many questions of traditional Lib Dem supporters and members. The first main question supporters will ask themselves is ‘Will my support for such a dwindling and dishonest Party actually make an effect on the next election?’
I believe the answer many Liberal supporters will come to is no. The Liberal Democrats are a confused lot with many different ideas for British politics. If any Lib Dem wants to vote and make a difference in the election of 2008/9/10 they will have to make the following stark choice. ‘Do I more believe in intervention to create greater equity or do I believe in a Britain driven by free market principles?’
These two approaches will split the tactical voting of Lib Dem sympathisers in the next election. Those believing in state-provided equity (through higher taxes) will vote Labour. Those believing in traditional ‘Old’ Liberalism, especially with a free economy, will vote Conservative.
Why am I so sure? With the percentage differences in the polling of the two main British parties being so close Lib Dems will have no choice but to look to the other parties to make the difference (Conservatives) or stick with a greater interventionist approach (Labour).
This is already demonstrated in the latest YouGov poll. Labour is up from 36% at the election to 40% support. We, Conservatives, are up from 33% to 39% (the greatest swing) and the Lib Dems have collapsed from a 23% support at the election to 13%. This is likely to be more greatly exaggerated at an election when tactical voting occurs in areas where the Lib Dems are no-hopers.
Therefore, the Party that attracts the greatest swing from Lib Dem supporters gains a massive chance to win the next election. I for one have believed David Cameron’s approach recently has been very moderate for a Conservative. But we can clearly see why such an approach is electorally logical.
We must make Lib Dems trust us. The actions of Liberal Lords and Ministers have already lost the trust of their own flock. It is now our job to shepherd them to Conservatism.
Guest editorial, Thomas Wales
